Pricing Analysis

FlexMLS comp analysis — scattergram, odds of selling, time to close. | One-off run · Lead queue

Choose comps — 9578 VILLIERS DR S, JACKSONVILLE FL
Untick a comp to throw it out, then re-run. Sorted by distance from the Fair Market line, so the outliers sit at the top.

An excluded comp is dropped from every chart and from the regression — not just hidden on the scattergram. A band you saved is kept. Nothing is destroyed: untick, look, re-tick.

50 comps in the export · 17 plotted in the 6-month window · 6 set the Fair Market line · 0 excluded.

Fair Market line right now — built on 6 closed comps · R² 0.60 · 1σ band $28,518

Only the comps marked sets the line move this. Unticking a wild ACTIVE or PENDING listing tidies the scattergram but will not move the ARV by a dollar — the regression is fit on closed sales only. Watch these three numbers after each re-run: a jumping R² means you are cutting real market, not an outlier.

Address	Status	sqft	Price	$/sq ft	vs fair line
1244 PEABODY pool 2135722	Closed (Sold) C	1,682	$330,000	$196	+14% +$40,341	sets the line
1530 SUMMIT OAKS 2134525	Closed (Sold) C	1,421	$220,000	$155	-13% −$34,203	sets the line
640 RADNOR 2147273	Closed (Sold) C	1,255	$255,000	$203	+10% +$23,347	sets the line
639 PURCELL 2153214	Closed (Sold) C	1,398	$235,000	$168	-6% −$16,079	sets the line
1472 REDBIRD CREEK 2123763	Closed (Sold) C	1,901	$299,000	$157	-6% −$20,409	sets the line
9709 UNDERWOOD 2121950	Closed (Sold) C	1,817	$315,000	$173	+2% +$7,002	sets the line
1431 BLUES CREEK pool 2138363	For Sale (Active) A	1,636	$339,000	$207	+20% +$55,590	plotted only
9720 STEAD 2141256	For Sale (Active) A	1,972	$271,950	$138	-17% −$57,104	plotted only
1230 SUMMIT OAKS 2160943	For Sale (Active) A	1,846	$364,999	$198	+17% +$53,062	plotted only
9697 UNDERWOOD pool 2146994	Under Contract A	1,867	$355,000	$190	+13% +$40,210	plotted only
1438 BLUES CREEK 2158387	For Sale (Active) A	2,156	$314,900	$146	-11% −$39,149	plotted only
639 PURCELL 2142540	Did Not Sell L	1,398	$269,000	$192	+7% +$17,921	plotted only
9736 CEDAR RIDGE 2110612	Did Not Sell E	1,900	$338,000	$178	+6% +$18,727	plotted only
9739 VILLIERS 2158311	Under Contract A	1,716	$309,904	$181	+5% +$15,627	plotted only
9733 PEABODY 2149157	Under Contract P	1,689	$279,830	$166	-4% −$10,780	plotted only
1378 SUMMIT OAKS 2160508	For Sale (Active) A	2,107	$340,000	$161	-2% −$7,393	plotted only
9733 PEABODY 2110768	Did Not Sell E	1,689	$293,000	$173	+1% +$2,390	plotted only
610 HARRINGTON pool 2100890	Closed (Sold) C	1,194	$283,000	$237	—	outside the 6-mo window
9768 CEDAR RIDGE 2085467	Closed (Sold) C	2,210	$365,000	$165	—	outside the 6-mo window
575 PURCELL 2112312	Closed (Sold) C	1,092	$260,494	$239	—	outside the 6-mo window
1232 PEABODY 2112461	Closed (Sold) C	1,971	$321,500	$163	—	outside the 6-mo window
9731 VILLIERS 2111811	Closed (Sold) C	1,724	$285,000	$165	—	outside the 6-mo window
9691 CEDAR RIDGE pool 2100653	Closed (Sold) C	2,448	$400,000	$163	—	outside the 6-mo window
9667 CHUTNEY 2064739	Closed (Sold) C	1,188	$241,900	$204	—	outside the 6-mo window
657 RADNOR 2087244	Closed (Sold) C	1,264	$235,000	$186	—	outside the 6-mo window
1419 SUMMIT OAKS 2092193	Closed (Sold) C	1,928	$322,000	$167	—	outside the 6-mo window
9708 STEAD 2122890	Closed (Sold) C	1,755	$320,000	$182	—	outside the 6-mo window
551 PURCELL 2067267	Closed (Sold) C	1,141	$257,850	$226	—	outside the 6-mo window
575 PURCELL 2074507	Closed (Sold) C	1,092	$139,900	$128	—	outside the 6-mo window
1488 REDBIRD CREEK 2059226	Closed (Sold) C	1,712	$355,000	$207	—	outside the 6-mo window
9660 STANFORD BRIDGE 2064436	Closed (Sold) C	1,554	$248,000	$160	—	outside the 6-mo window
648 PURCELL 2057230	Closed (Sold) C	1,359	$230,000	$169	—	outside the 6-mo window
9696 HERSHAM 2056362	Closed (Sold) C	1,257	$265,000	$211	—	outside the 6-mo window
1252 PEABODY 2075085	Closed (Sold) C	1,741	$320,000	$184	—	outside the 6-mo window
9673 CEDAR RIDGE 2074834	Closed (Sold) C	1,581	$305,000	$193	—	outside the 6-mo window
9720 UNDERWOOD pool 2094895	Closed (Sold) C	2,134	$400,000	$187	—	outside the 6-mo window
1555 REDBIRD CREEK 2055675	Closed (Sold) C	1,669	$300,000	$180	—	outside the 6-mo window
9726 VILLIERS 2077506	Closed (Sold) C	1,654	$322,000	$195	—	outside the 6-mo window
9659 STANFORD BRIDGE 2037593	Closed (Sold) C	1,674	$333,000	$199	—	outside the 6-mo window
9667 CHUTNEY 2055007	Closed (Sold) C	1,188	$216,400	$182	—	outside the 6-mo window
1431 BLUES CREEK pool 2070542	Did Not Sell E	1,636	$364,000	$222	—	outside the 6-mo window
9708 STEAD 2108361	Did Not Sell E	1,755	$305,000	$174	—	outside the 6-mo window
9736 CEDAR RIDGE 2059880	Did Not Sell E	1,900	$349,000	$184	—	outside the 6-mo window
1283 SUMMIT OAKS 2063024	Did Not Sell E	2,007	$404,900	$202	—	outside the 6-mo window
1283 SUMMIT OAKS 2020587	Did Not Sell E	2,007	$415,900	$207	—	outside the 6-mo window
1494 BLUES CREEK 2039114	Did Not Sell E	1,851	$350,000	$189	—	outside the 6-mo window
9669 WATERLOO 2041321	Did Not Sell L	1,739	$274,990	$158	—	outside the 6-mo window
9667 CHUTNEY 2056723	Did Not Sell L	1,188	$284,900	$240	—	outside the 6-mo window
1252 PEABODY 2058748	Did Not Sell L	1,741	$355,000	$204	—	outside the 6-mo window
1494 BLUES CREEK 2064652	Did Not Sell L	1,851	$335,000	$181	—	outside the 6-mo window

Keep

Address

Status

sqft

Price

$/sq ft

vs fair line

1244 PEABODY pool
2135722

Closed (Sold)
C

1,682

$330,000

$196

+14%
+$40,341

sets the line

1530 SUMMIT OAKS
2134525

Closed (Sold)
C

1,421

$220,000

$155

-13%
−$34,203

sets the line

640 RADNOR
2147273

Closed (Sold)
C

1,255

$255,000

$203

+10%
+$23,347

sets the line

639 PURCELL
2153214

Closed (Sold)
C

1,398

$235,000

$168

-6%
−$16,079

sets the line

1472 REDBIRD CREEK
2123763

Closed (Sold)
C

1,901

$299,000

$157

-6%
−$20,409

sets the line

9709 UNDERWOOD
2121950

Closed (Sold)
C

1,817

$315,000

$173

+2%
+$7,002

sets the line

1431 BLUES CREEK pool
2138363

For Sale (Active)
A

1,636

$339,000

$207

+20%
+$55,590

plotted only

9720 STEAD
2141256

For Sale (Active)
A

1,972

$271,950

$138

-17%
−$57,104

plotted only

1230 SUMMIT OAKS
2160943

For Sale (Active)
A

1,846

$364,999

$198

+17%
+$53,062

plotted only

9697 UNDERWOOD pool
2146994

Under Contract
A

1,867

$355,000

$190

+13%
+$40,210

plotted only

1438 BLUES CREEK
2158387

For Sale (Active)
A

2,156

$314,900

$146

-11%
−$39,149

plotted only

639 PURCELL
2142540

Did Not Sell
L

1,398

$269,000

$192

+7%
+$17,921

plotted only

9736 CEDAR RIDGE
2110612

Did Not Sell
E

1,900

$338,000

$178

+6%
+$18,727

plotted only

9739 VILLIERS
2158311

Under Contract
A

1,716

$309,904

$181

+5%
+$15,627

plotted only

9733 PEABODY
2149157

Under Contract
P

1,689

$279,830

$166

-4%
−$10,780

plotted only

1378 SUMMIT OAKS
2160508

For Sale (Active)
A

2,107

$340,000

$161

-2%
−$7,393

plotted only

9733 PEABODY
2110768

Did Not Sell
E

1,689

$293,000

$173

+1%
+$2,390

plotted only

610 HARRINGTON pool
2100890

Closed (Sold)
C

1,194

$283,000

$237

—

outside the 6-mo window

9768 CEDAR RIDGE
2085467

Closed (Sold)
C

2,210

$365,000

$165

—

outside the 6-mo window

575 PURCELL
2112312

Closed (Sold)
C

1,092

$260,494

$239

—

outside the 6-mo window

1232 PEABODY
2112461

Closed (Sold)
C

1,971

$321,500

$163

—

outside the 6-mo window

9731 VILLIERS
2111811

Closed (Sold)
C

1,724

$285,000

$165

—

outside the 6-mo window

9691 CEDAR RIDGE pool
2100653

Closed (Sold)
C

2,448

$400,000

$163

—

outside the 6-mo window

9667 CHUTNEY
2064739

Closed (Sold)
C

1,188

$241,900

$204

—

outside the 6-mo window

657 RADNOR
2087244

Closed (Sold)
C

1,264

$235,000

$186

—

outside the 6-mo window

1419 SUMMIT OAKS
2092193

Closed (Sold)
C

1,928

$322,000

$167

—

outside the 6-mo window

9708 STEAD
2122890

Closed (Sold)
C

1,755

$320,000

$182

—

outside the 6-mo window

551 PURCELL
2067267

Closed (Sold)
C

1,141

$257,850

$226

—

outside the 6-mo window

575 PURCELL
2074507

Closed (Sold)
C

1,092

$139,900

$128

—

outside the 6-mo window

1488 REDBIRD CREEK
2059226

Closed (Sold)
C

1,712

$355,000

$207

—

outside the 6-mo window

9660 STANFORD BRIDGE
2064436

Closed (Sold)
C

1,554

$248,000

$160

—

outside the 6-mo window

648 PURCELL
2057230

Closed (Sold)
C

1,359

$230,000

$169

—

outside the 6-mo window

9696 HERSHAM
2056362

Closed (Sold)
C

1,257

$265,000

$211

—

outside the 6-mo window

1252 PEABODY
2075085

Closed (Sold)
C

1,741

$320,000

$184

—

outside the 6-mo window

9673 CEDAR RIDGE
2074834

Closed (Sold)
C

1,581

$305,000

$193

—

outside the 6-mo window

9720 UNDERWOOD pool
2094895

Closed (Sold)
C

2,134

$400,000

$187

—

outside the 6-mo window

1555 REDBIRD CREEK
2055675

Closed (Sold)
C

1,669

$300,000

$180

—

outside the 6-mo window

9726 VILLIERS
2077506

Closed (Sold)
C

1,654

$322,000

$195

—

outside the 6-mo window

9659 STANFORD BRIDGE
2037593

Closed (Sold)
C

1,674

$333,000

$199

—

outside the 6-mo window

9667 CHUTNEY
2055007

Closed (Sold)
C

1,188

$216,400

$182

—

outside the 6-mo window

1431 BLUES CREEK pool
2070542

Did Not Sell
E

1,636

$364,000

$222

—

outside the 6-mo window

9708 STEAD
2108361

Did Not Sell
E

1,755

$305,000

$174

—

outside the 6-mo window

9736 CEDAR RIDGE
2059880

Did Not Sell
E

1,900

$349,000

$184

—

outside the 6-mo window

1283 SUMMIT OAKS
2063024

Did Not Sell
E

2,007

$404,900

$202

—

outside the 6-mo window

1283 SUMMIT OAKS
2020587

Did Not Sell
E

2,007

$415,900

$207

—

outside the 6-mo window

1494 BLUES CREEK
2039114

Did Not Sell
E

1,851

$350,000

$189

—

outside the 6-mo window

9669 WATERLOO
2041321

Did Not Sell
L

1,739

$274,990

$158

—

outside the 6-mo window

9667 CHUTNEY
2056723

Did Not Sell
L

1,188

$284,900

$240

—

outside the 6-mo window

1252 PEABODY
2058748

Did Not Sell
L

1,741

$355,000

$204

—

outside the 6-mo window

1494 BLUES CREEK
2064652

Did Not Sell
L

1,851

$335,000

$181

—

outside the 6-mo window