Pricing Analysis

FlexMLS comp analysis — scattergram, odds of selling, time to close. | One-off run · Lead queue

Choose comps — 3839 ARROW LAKES DR S, JACKSONVILLE FL
Untick a comp to throw it out, then re-run. Sorted by distance from the Fair Market line, so the outliers sit at the top.

An excluded comp is dropped from every chart and from the regression — not just hidden on the scattergram. A band you saved is kept. Nothing is destroyed: untick, look, re-tick.

51 comps in the export · 8 plotted in the 6-month window · 7 set the Fair Market line · 0 excluded.

Fair Market line right now — built on 7 closed comps · R² 0.38 · 1σ band $26,284

Only the comps marked sets the line move this. Unticking a wild ACTIVE or PENDING listing tidies the scattergram but will not move the ARV by a dollar — the regression is fit on closed sales only. Watch these three numbers after each re-run: a jumping R² means you are cutting real market, not an outlier.

Address	Status	sqft	Price	$/sq ft	vs fair line
10437 DOCKSIDER pool 2119473	Closed (Sold) C	1,406	$395,000	$281	+16% +$54,182	sets the line
10288 BENT TREE 2100651	Closed (Sold) C	1,450	$310,000	$214	-8% −$25,420	sets the line
10164 ARROWHEAD pool 2109322	Closed (Sold) C	1,313	$330,000	$251	-6% −$22,226	sets the line
10532 ARROWHEAD 2139035	Closed (Sold) C	1,476	$325,000	$220	-2% −$7,231	sets the line
3673 DEER CROSSING 2104206	Closed (Sold) C	1,507	$332,000	$220	+1% +$3,572	sets the line
10360 ARROWHEAD ⊘ no garage 2117807	Closed (Sold) C	1,847	$285,000	$154	-1% −$1,721	sets the line
3431 DOCKSIDER 2114773	Closed (Sold) C	1,444	$335,000	$232	-0% −$1,156	sets the line
10164 BEAR VALLEY 2148342	Under Contract P	1,935	$415,000	$214	+50% +$139,073	plotted only
3450 DOCKSIDER 2090312	Closed (Sold) C	1,300	$255,000	$196	—	outside the 6-mo window
3657 HARTLEY 2080082	Closed (Sold) C	1,229	$327,000	$266	—	outside the 6-mo window
10388 ARROW BLUFF 2092707	Closed (Sold) C	1,744	$245,000	$140	—	outside the 6-mo window
10518 ANCHORAGE COVE 2109300	Closed (Sold) C	1,216	$295,000	$243	—	outside the 6-mo window
10265 BEAR VALLEY 2103991	Closed (Sold) C	1,450	$318,000	$219	—	outside the 6-mo window
10439 SPINDRIFT pool 2068571	Closed (Sold) C	1,320	$350,000	$265	—	outside the 6-mo window
3443 MAIDEN VOYAGE 2115706	Closed (Sold) C	1,453	$354,500	$244	—	outside the 6-mo window
10396 ARROW FOREST ⊘ no garage 2037051	Closed (Sold) C	1,870	$355,000	$190	—	outside the 6-mo window
3450 MAIDEN VOYAGE 2042334	Closed (Sold) C	1,731	$320,000	$185	—	outside the 6-mo window
3457 SCRIMSHAW 2049415	Closed (Sold) C	1,402	$295,000	$210	—	outside the 6-mo window
10375 ARROWHEAD 2067916	Closed (Sold) C	1,659	$306,000	$184	—	outside the 6-mo window
10257 BEAR VALLEY pool 2066600	Closed (Sold) C	1,364	$323,000	$237	—	outside the 6-mo window
10248 ARROWHEAD 2075195	Closed (Sold) C	1,584	$350,000	$221	—	outside the 6-mo window
3718 INDIAN PRINCESS 2057623	Closed (Sold) C	1,380	$345,000	$250	—	outside the 6-mo window
10358 ARROW LAKES 2083825	Closed (Sold) C	1,148	$295,000	$257	—	outside the 6-mo window
10482 DOCKSIDER 2088988	Closed (Sold) C	1,834	$369,000	$201	—	outside the 6-mo window
10482 Docksider SA253929	Closed (Sold) C	1,834	$369,000	$201	—	outside the 6-mo window
10242 BEAR VALLEY pool 2085776	Closed (Sold) C	1,334	$380,000	$285	—	outside the 6-mo window
10337 AUTUMN VALLEY pool 2095775	Closed (Sold) C	1,521	$365,000	$240	—	outside the 6-mo window
10487 ANCHORAGE COVE 2093840	Closed (Sold) C	1,456	$354,000	$243	—	outside the 6-mo window
3437 DOCKSIDER 2067546	Closed (Sold) C	1,374	$333,000	$242	—	outside the 6-mo window
3567 WHALERS 2037765	Closed (Sold) C	1,189	$287,000	$241	—	outside the 6-mo window
3489 MAIDEN VOYAGE 2015321	Closed (Sold) C	1,592	$330,000	$207	—	outside the 6-mo window
3449 SCRIMSHAW 2027938	Closed (Sold) C	1,242	$290,000	$233	—	outside the 6-mo window
10251 FOXCROFT 2028096	Closed (Sold) C	1,640	$400,000	$244	—	outside the 6-mo window
3509 DOCKSIDER 2028603	Closed (Sold) C	1,512	$346,000	$229	—	outside the 6-mo window
3421 MAIDEN VOYAGE 2018765	Closed (Sold) C	1,446	$325,000	$225	—	outside the 6-mo window
10319 ARROW FOREST 2035312	Closed (Sold) C	1,244	$310,000	$249	—	outside the 6-mo window
3453 MAIDEN VOYAGE 2037812	Closed (Sold) C	1,406	$290,000	$206	—	outside the 6-mo window
10315 ARROW LAKES 2017254	Closed (Sold) C	1,786	$305,000	$171	—	outside the 6-mo window
10489 ARROWHEAD 2035396	Closed (Sold) C	1,520	$345,000	$227	—	outside the 6-mo window
3428 DOCKSIDER 2033639	Closed (Sold) C	1,482	$350,000	$236	—	outside the 6-mo window
10209 BEAR VALLEY pool 2054699	Closed (Sold) C	1,803	$435,000	$241	—	outside the 6-mo window
3364 MAIDEN VOYAGE 2036005	Closed (Sold) C	1,404	$335,000	$239	—	outside the 6-mo window
3468 DOCKSIDER 2052336	Closed (Sold) C	1,490	$347,500	$233	—	outside the 6-mo window
3703 FOXCROFT 2049525	Closed (Sold) C	1,659	$355,000	$214	—	outside the 6-mo window
3469 DOCKSIDER 2079627	Closed (Sold) C	1,338	$342,000	$256	—	outside the 6-mo window
10248 ARROWHEAD 2060292	Did Not Sell E	1,584	$365,000	$230	—	outside the 6-mo window
10388 ARROW BLUFF 2065239	Did Not Sell L	1,564	$310,000	$198	—	outside the 6-mo window
3681 FOXCROFT pool 2083907	Did Not Sell L	1,334	$385,000	$289	—	outside the 6-mo window
10288 BENT TREE 2049902	Did Not Sell L	1,480	$339,900	$230	—	outside the 6-mo window
3428 DOCKSIDER 2010357	Did Not Sell L	1,482	$378,000	$255	—	outside the 6-mo window
3453 MAIDEN VOYAGE 2031639	Did Not Sell L	1,406	$294,900	$210	—	outside the 6-mo window

Keep

Address

Status

sqft

Price

$/sq ft

vs fair line

10437 DOCKSIDER pool
2119473

Closed (Sold)
C

1,406

$395,000

$281

+16%
+$54,182

sets the line

10288 BENT TREE
2100651

Closed (Sold)
C

1,450

$310,000

$214

-8%
−$25,420

sets the line

10164 ARROWHEAD pool
2109322

Closed (Sold)
C

1,313

$330,000

$251

-6%
−$22,226

sets the line

10532 ARROWHEAD
2139035

Closed (Sold)
C

1,476

$325,000

$220

-2%
−$7,231

sets the line

3673 DEER CROSSING
2104206

Closed (Sold)
C

1,507

$332,000

$220

+1%
+$3,572

sets the line

10360 ARROWHEAD ⊘ no garage
2117807

Closed (Sold)
C

1,847

$285,000

$154

-1%
−$1,721

sets the line

3431 DOCKSIDER
2114773

Closed (Sold)
C

1,444

$335,000

$232

-0%
−$1,156

sets the line

10164 BEAR VALLEY
2148342

Under Contract
P

1,935

$415,000

$214

+50%
+$139,073

plotted only

3450 DOCKSIDER
2090312

Closed (Sold)
C

1,300

$255,000

$196

—

outside the 6-mo window

3657 HARTLEY
2080082

Closed (Sold)
C

1,229

$327,000

$266

—

outside the 6-mo window

10388 ARROW BLUFF
2092707

Closed (Sold)
C

1,744

$245,000

$140

—

outside the 6-mo window

10518 ANCHORAGE COVE
2109300

Closed (Sold)
C

1,216

$295,000

$243

—

outside the 6-mo window

10265 BEAR VALLEY
2103991

Closed (Sold)
C

1,450

$318,000

$219

—

outside the 6-mo window

10439 SPINDRIFT pool
2068571

Closed (Sold)
C

1,320

$350,000

$265

—

outside the 6-mo window

3443 MAIDEN VOYAGE
2115706

Closed (Sold)
C

1,453

$354,500

$244

—

outside the 6-mo window

10396 ARROW FOREST ⊘ no garage
2037051

Closed (Sold)
C

1,870

$355,000

$190

—

outside the 6-mo window

3450 MAIDEN VOYAGE
2042334

Closed (Sold)
C

1,731

$320,000

$185

—

outside the 6-mo window

3457 SCRIMSHAW
2049415

Closed (Sold)
C

1,402

$295,000

$210

—

outside the 6-mo window

10375 ARROWHEAD
2067916

Closed (Sold)
C

1,659

$306,000

$184

—

outside the 6-mo window

10257 BEAR VALLEY pool
2066600

Closed (Sold)
C

1,364

$323,000

$237

—

outside the 6-mo window

10248 ARROWHEAD
2075195

Closed (Sold)
C

1,584

$350,000

$221

—

outside the 6-mo window

3718 INDIAN PRINCESS
2057623

Closed (Sold)
C

1,380

$345,000

$250

—

outside the 6-mo window

10358 ARROW LAKES
2083825

Closed (Sold)
C

1,148

$295,000

$257

—

outside the 6-mo window

10482 DOCKSIDER
2088988

Closed (Sold)
C

1,834

$369,000

$201

—

outside the 6-mo window

10482 Docksider
SA253929

Closed (Sold)
C

1,834

$369,000

$201

—

outside the 6-mo window

10242 BEAR VALLEY pool
2085776

Closed (Sold)
C

1,334

$380,000

$285

—

outside the 6-mo window

10337 AUTUMN VALLEY pool
2095775

Closed (Sold)
C

1,521

$365,000

$240

—

outside the 6-mo window

10487 ANCHORAGE COVE
2093840

Closed (Sold)
C

1,456

$354,000

$243

—

outside the 6-mo window

3437 DOCKSIDER
2067546

Closed (Sold)
C

1,374

$333,000

$242

—

outside the 6-mo window

3567 WHALERS
2037765

Closed (Sold)
C

1,189

$287,000

$241

—

outside the 6-mo window

3489 MAIDEN VOYAGE
2015321

Closed (Sold)
C

1,592

$330,000

$207

—

outside the 6-mo window

3449 SCRIMSHAW
2027938

Closed (Sold)
C

1,242

$290,000

$233

—

outside the 6-mo window

10251 FOXCROFT
2028096

Closed (Sold)
C

1,640

$400,000

$244

—

outside the 6-mo window

3509 DOCKSIDER
2028603

Closed (Sold)
C

1,512

$346,000

$229

—

outside the 6-mo window

3421 MAIDEN VOYAGE
2018765

Closed (Sold)
C

1,446

$325,000

$225

—

outside the 6-mo window

10319 ARROW FOREST
2035312

Closed (Sold)
C

1,244

$310,000

$249

—

outside the 6-mo window

3453 MAIDEN VOYAGE
2037812

Closed (Sold)
C

1,406

$290,000

$206

—

outside the 6-mo window

10315 ARROW LAKES
2017254

Closed (Sold)
C

1,786

$305,000

$171

—

outside the 6-mo window

10489 ARROWHEAD
2035396

Closed (Sold)
C

1,520

$345,000

$227

—

outside the 6-mo window

3428 DOCKSIDER
2033639

Closed (Sold)
C

1,482

$350,000

$236

—

outside the 6-mo window

10209 BEAR VALLEY pool
2054699

Closed (Sold)
C

1,803

$435,000

$241

—

outside the 6-mo window

3364 MAIDEN VOYAGE
2036005

Closed (Sold)
C

1,404

$335,000

$239

—

outside the 6-mo window

3468 DOCKSIDER
2052336

Closed (Sold)
C

1,490

$347,500

$233

—

outside the 6-mo window

3703 FOXCROFT
2049525

Closed (Sold)
C

1,659

$355,000

$214

—

outside the 6-mo window

3469 DOCKSIDER
2079627

Closed (Sold)
C

1,338

$342,000

$256

—

outside the 6-mo window

10248 ARROWHEAD
2060292

Did Not Sell
E

1,584

$365,000

$230

—

outside the 6-mo window

10388 ARROW BLUFF
2065239

Did Not Sell
L

1,564

$310,000

$198

—

outside the 6-mo window

3681 FOXCROFT pool
2083907

Did Not Sell
L

1,334

$385,000

$289

—

outside the 6-mo window

10288 BENT TREE
2049902

Did Not Sell
L

1,480

$339,900

$230

—

outside the 6-mo window

3428 DOCKSIDER
2010357

Did Not Sell
L

1,482

$378,000

$255

—

outside the 6-mo window

3453 MAIDEN VOYAGE
2031639

Did Not Sell
L

1,406

$294,900

$210

—

outside the 6-mo window