Pricing Analysis

FlexMLS comp analysis — scattergram, odds of selling, time to close. | One-off run · Lead queue

Choose comps — 4124 RUSTY RUN CT, JACKSONVILLE FL
Untick a comp to throw it out, then re-run. Sorted by distance from the Fair Market line, so the outliers sit at the top.

An excluded comp is dropped from every chart and from the regression — not just hidden on the scattergram. A band you saved is kept. Nothing is destroyed: untick, look, re-tick.

32 comps in the export · 11 plotted in the 6-month window · 5 set the Fair Market line · 0 excluded.

Fair Market line right now — built on 5 closed comps · R² 0.70 · 1σ band $4,309

Only the comps marked sets the line move this. Unticking a wild ACTIVE or PENDING listing tidies the scattergram but will not move the ARV by a dollar — the regression is fit on closed sales only. Watch these three numbers after each re-run: a jumping R² means you are cutting real market, not an outlier.

Address	Status	sqft	Price	$/sq ft	vs fair line
3936 ENGLISH COLONY 2146794	Closed (Sold) C	1,567	$350,000	$223	+2% +$5,359	sets the line
3847 ENGLISH COLONY 2137245	Closed (Sold) C	1,410	$335,000	$238	-1% −$5,022	sets the line
3822 ENGLISH COLONY 2142538	Closed (Sold) C	1,458	$345,000	$237	+1% +$3,566	sets the line
3850 ENGLISH COLONY 2136970	Closed (Sold) C	1,408	$338,000	$240	-1% −$1,963	sets the line
10742 ORCHARD WALK 2151089	Closed (Sold) C	1,934	$353,500	$183	-1% −$1,940	sets the line
4067 BALD EAGLE pool 2157497	Under Contract A	1,670	$399,999	$240	+15% +$52,327	plotted only
3794 BARBIZON pool 2136609	Did Not Sell L	1,703	$399,990	$235	+15% +$51,347	plotted only
3890 BALD EAGLE 2153912	Under Contract A	1,540	$379,000	$246	+10% +$35,153	plotted only
3569 HAMPTON GLEN 2153004	For Sale (Active) A	1,522	$369,900	$243	+8% +$26,583	plotted only
3939 ENGLISH COLONY 2147661	For Sale (Active) A	1,413	$325,000	$230	-4% −$15,110	plotted only
4124 RUSTY RUN 2124987	Did Not Sell E	1,500	$340,000	$227	-1% −$2,670	plotted only
3577 HAMPTON GLEN 2103864	Closed (Sold) C	1,576	$369,000	$234	—	outside the 6-mo window
3928 BALD EAGLE 2052943	Closed (Sold) C	1,577	$350,000	$222	—	outside the 6-mo window
3431 Orchard Walk SA250764	Closed (Sold) C	1,806	$410,000	$227	—	outside the 6-mo window
3431 ORCHARD WALK pool 2061119	Closed (Sold) C	1,806	$410,000	$227	—	outside the 6-mo window
10725 ORCHARD WALK 2061425	Closed (Sold) C	1,623	$339,000	$209	—	outside the 6-mo window
11105 BARBIZON 2074985	Closed (Sold) C	1,425	$341,000	$239	—	outside the 6-mo window
3723 BARBIZON 2080309	Closed (Sold) C	1,273	$300,000	$236	—	outside the 6-mo window
10723 AQUILA 2063333	Closed (Sold) C	1,679	$362,000	$216	—	outside the 6-mo window
10872 CARRINGTON 2091599	Closed (Sold) C	1,276	$340,000	$266	—	outside the 6-mo window
10867 RUTHERFORD 2092905	Closed (Sold) C	1,428	$340,000	$238	—	outside the 6-mo window
11087 DANZIG 2092041	Closed (Sold) C	1,425	$359,900	$253	—	outside the 6-mo window
3675 BARBIZON 2091798	Closed (Sold) C	1,425	$318,500	$224	—	outside the 6-mo window
10798 ORCHARD WALK 2044904	Closed (Sold) C	1,606	$399,000	$248	—	outside the 6-mo window
3822 ENGLISH COLONY 2059264	Closed (Sold) C	1,458	$326,000	$224	—	outside the 6-mo window
3929 ENGLISH COLONY 2019437	Closed (Sold) C	1,228	$300,000	$244	—	outside the 6-mo window
10816 RUTHERFORD 2047700	Closed (Sold) C	1,480	$320,000	$216	—	outside the 6-mo window
4124 RUSTY RUN 2086372	Did Not Sell E	1,500	$340,000	$227	—	outside the 6-mo window
3933 ENGLISH COLONY 2085947	Did Not Sell E	1,384	$330,000	$238	—	outside the 6-mo window
3820 BALD EAGLE 2110297	Did Not Sell E	1,360	$354,990	$261	—	outside the 6-mo window
3675 BARBIZON 2082748	Did Not Sell L	1,425	$337,000	$236	—	outside the 6-mo window
3587 BARBIZON 2055793	Did Not Sell L	1,425	$339,900	$239	—	outside the 6-mo window

Keep

Address

Status

sqft

Price

$/sq ft

vs fair line

3936 ENGLISH COLONY
2146794

Closed (Sold)
C

1,567

$350,000

$223

+2%
+$5,359

sets the line

3847 ENGLISH COLONY
2137245

Closed (Sold)
C

1,410

$335,000

$238

-1%
−$5,022

sets the line

3822 ENGLISH COLONY
2142538

Closed (Sold)
C

1,458

$345,000

$237

+1%
+$3,566

sets the line

3850 ENGLISH COLONY
2136970

Closed (Sold)
C

1,408

$338,000

$240

-1%
−$1,963

sets the line

10742 ORCHARD WALK
2151089

Closed (Sold)
C

1,934

$353,500

$183

-1%
−$1,940

sets the line

4067 BALD EAGLE pool
2157497

Under Contract
A

1,670

$399,999

$240

+15%
+$52,327

plotted only

3794 BARBIZON pool
2136609

Did Not Sell
L

1,703

$399,990

$235

+15%
+$51,347

plotted only

3890 BALD EAGLE
2153912

Under Contract
A

1,540

$379,000

$246

+10%
+$35,153

plotted only

3569 HAMPTON GLEN
2153004

For Sale (Active)
A

1,522

$369,900

$243

+8%
+$26,583

plotted only

3939 ENGLISH COLONY
2147661

For Sale (Active)
A

1,413

$325,000

$230

-4%
−$15,110

plotted only

4124 RUSTY RUN
2124987

Did Not Sell
E

1,500

$340,000

$227

-1%
−$2,670

plotted only

3577 HAMPTON GLEN
2103864

Closed (Sold)
C

1,576

$369,000

$234

—

outside the 6-mo window

3928 BALD EAGLE
2052943

Closed (Sold)
C

1,577

$350,000

$222

—

outside the 6-mo window

3431 Orchard Walk
SA250764

Closed (Sold)
C

1,806

$410,000

$227

—

outside the 6-mo window

3431 ORCHARD WALK pool
2061119

Closed (Sold)
C

1,806

$410,000

$227

—

outside the 6-mo window

10725 ORCHARD WALK
2061425

Closed (Sold)
C

1,623

$339,000

$209

—

outside the 6-mo window

11105 BARBIZON
2074985

Closed (Sold)
C

1,425

$341,000

$239

—

outside the 6-mo window

3723 BARBIZON
2080309

Closed (Sold)
C

1,273

$300,000

$236

—

outside the 6-mo window

10723 AQUILA
2063333

Closed (Sold)
C

1,679

$362,000

$216

—

outside the 6-mo window

10872 CARRINGTON
2091599

Closed (Sold)
C

1,276

$340,000

$266

—

outside the 6-mo window

10867 RUTHERFORD
2092905

Closed (Sold)
C

1,428

$340,000

$238

—

outside the 6-mo window

11087 DANZIG
2092041

Closed (Sold)
C

1,425

$359,900

$253

—

outside the 6-mo window

3675 BARBIZON
2091798

Closed (Sold)
C

1,425

$318,500

$224

—

outside the 6-mo window

10798 ORCHARD WALK
2044904

Closed (Sold)
C

1,606

$399,000

$248

—

outside the 6-mo window

3822 ENGLISH COLONY
2059264

Closed (Sold)
C

1,458

$326,000

$224

—

outside the 6-mo window

3929 ENGLISH COLONY
2019437

Closed (Sold)
C

1,228

$300,000

$244

—

outside the 6-mo window

10816 RUTHERFORD
2047700

Closed (Sold)
C

1,480

$320,000

$216

—

outside the 6-mo window

4124 RUSTY RUN
2086372

Did Not Sell
E

1,500

$340,000

$227

—

outside the 6-mo window

3933 ENGLISH COLONY
2085947

Did Not Sell
E

1,384

$330,000

$238

—

outside the 6-mo window

3820 BALD EAGLE
2110297

Did Not Sell
E

1,360

$354,990

$261

—

outside the 6-mo window

3675 BARBIZON
2082748

Did Not Sell
L

1,425

$337,000

$236

—

outside the 6-mo window

3587 BARBIZON
2055793

Did Not Sell
L

1,425

$339,900

$239

—

outside the 6-mo window