Pricing Analysis

FlexMLS comp analysis — scattergram, odds of selling, time to close. | One-off run · Lead queue

Choose comps — 4121 RUSTY RUN CT, JACKSONVILLE FL
Untick a comp to throw it out, then re-run. Sorted by distance from the Fair Market line, so the outliers sit at the top.

An excluded comp is dropped from every chart and from the regression — not just hidden on the scattergram. A band you saved is kept. Nothing is destroyed: untick, look, re-tick.

59 comps in the export · 26 plotted in the 6-month window · 12 set the Fair Market line · 0 excluded.

Fair Market line right now — built on 12 closed comps · R² 0.96 · 1σ band $148,978

Only the comps marked sets the line move this. Unticking a wild ACTIVE or PENDING listing tidies the scattergram but will not move the ARV by a dollar — the regression is fit on closed sales only. Watch these three numbers after each re-run: a jumping R² means you are cutting real market, not an outlier.

Address	Status	sqft	Price	$/sq ft	vs fair line
11040 BLESSINGS Court 2115038	Closed (Sold) C	1,622	$409,000	$252	+44% +$124,945	sets the line
12767 BRADY Road 2153011	Closed (Sold) C	3,403	$700,000	$206	-36% −$395,174	sets the line
6429 DANA Drive 2154591	Closed (Sold) C	1,759	$422,000	$240	+22% +$75,551	sets the line
12657 ALADDIN Road pool 2118203	Closed (Sold) C	2,360	$750,000	$318	+21% +$129,838	sets the line
3955 CEDAR COVE Lane 2148649	Closed (Sold) C	1,680	$374,900	$223	+21% +$64,430	sets the line
11005 BLESSINGS Court 2115047	Closed (Sold) C	2,510	$549,000	$219	-20% −$139,476	sets the line
10853 PINE ACRES Road 2157361	Closed (Sold) C	1,835	$425,000	$232	+12% +$43,938	sets the line
1326 JOURNEYS END Lane 2146782	Closed (Sold) C	2,571	$665,000	$259	-7% −$51,257	sets the line
11034 BLESSINGS Court 2136525	Closed (Sold) C	1,941	$459,000	$236	+7% +$29,663	sets the line
11028 BLESSINGS Court 2115044	Closed (Sold) C	1,941	$459,000	$236	+7% +$29,663	sets the line
2151 JUDITH Place 2114011	Closed (Sold) C	2,800	$775,000	$277	-6% −$45,550	sets the line
2501 SCOTT MILL Drive pool 2127459	Closed (Sold) C	7,556	$3,120,000	$413	+4% +$133,429	sets the line
13062 MANDARIN Road pool 2152643	For Sale (Active) A	2,931	$1,800,000	$614	+104% +$919,788	plotted only
4242 HILLWOOD Road 2154055	For Sale (Active) A	2,281	$998,900	$438	+71% +$414,717	plotted only
3443 REMLER Drive pool 2158229	For Sale (Active) A	1,540	$410,000	$266	+66% +$163,290	plotted only
11041 BLESSINGS Court 2161824	For Sale (Active) A	2,510	$449,900	$179	-35% −$238,576	plotted only
3286 MARBON Road pool 2143941	For Sale (Active) A	2,554	$505,000	$198	-29% −$203,515	plotted only
11029 BLESSINGS Court 2143846	For Sale (Active) A	2,510	$499,900	$199	-27% −$188,576	plotted only
11023 BLESSINGS Court 2143847	For Sale (Active) A	2,510	$519,900	$207	-24% −$168,576	plotted only
13380 EYNON Drive 2135253	For Sale (Active) A	2,436	$495,000	$203	-24% −$159,774	plotted only
10380 HOOD Road pool 2131048	For Sale (Active) A	2,925	$699,000	$239	-20% −$178,479	plotted only
4654 JULINGTON CREEK Road pool 2135462	For Sale (Active) A	3,295	$1,200,000	$364	+15% +$154,012	plotted only
2718 CLAIRE Lane pool 2159326	Under Contract A	3,388	$950,000	$280	-13% −$138,343	plotted only
3120 JULINGTON CREEK Road 2153738	For Sale (Active) A	10,654	$3,900,000	$366	-11% −$497,490	plotted only
5052 LOURCEY Road pool 2153498	For Sale (Active) A	4,537	$1,449,000	$319	-10% −$162,631	plotted only
12641 MANDARIN Road 2154086	Under Contract A	3,425	$1,150,000	$336	+4% +$44,806	plotted only
4232 HILLWOOD Road 2131144	For Sale (Active) A	—	$1,467,750	—	—	no size/price — not plotted
3120 JULINGTON CREEK Road 2153110	For Sale (Active) A	—	$3,900,000	—	—	no size/price — not plotted
5580 GREENLAND Road 2085275	Closed (Sold) C	1,760	$400,000	$227	—	outside the 6-mo window
9542 RAGSDALE Drive 2091065	Closed (Sold) C	—	$35,000	—	—	outside the 6-mo window
11646 MOSSY Way 2078710	Closed (Sold) C	1,820	$377,000	$207	—	outside the 6-mo window
3392 MARBON Road pool 2055442	Closed (Sold) C	3,070	$1,000,000	$326	—	outside the 6-mo window
3104 ORANGE PICKER Road 2030785	Closed (Sold) C	2,108	$458,000	$217	—	outside the 6-mo window
11136 RIVER CREEK Drive pool 2088225	Closed (Sold) C	2,645	$625,000	$236	—	outside the 6-mo window
1315 FRUIT COVE Road 2117130	Closed (Sold) C	1,956	$415,000	$212	—	outside the 6-mo window
10813 CHEATHAM Trail 2107338	Closed (Sold) C	2,633	$435,000	$165	—	outside the 6-mo window
2718 CLAIRE Lane pool 2110588	Closed (Sold) C	3,388	$899,000	$265	—	outside the 6-mo window
2926 SCOTT MILL Lane pool 2116267	Closed (Sold) C	9,954	$2,525,000	$254	—	outside the 6-mo window
12221 GOVERNORS Drive 2107453	Closed (Sold) C	1,497	$350,000	$234	—	outside the 6-mo window
11728 ST JOSEPHS Road 2105845	Closed (Sold) C	2,136	$478,000	$224	—	outside the 6-mo window
12245 TRACY ANN Road 2095314	Closed (Sold) C	3,449	$950,000	$275	—	outside the 6-mo window
5039 TAN Street 2098072	Closed (Sold) C	1,440	$200,000	$139	—	outside the 6-mo window
2562 LORETTO Road 2092852	Closed (Sold) C	3,838	$1,050,000	$274	—	outside the 6-mo window
12779 OLD FIELD LANDING Drive 2005672	Closed (Sold) C	1,308	$210,000	$161	—	outside the 6-mo window
11660 MANDARIN TERRACE Road 2093902	Closed (Sold) C	—	$299,000	—	—	outside the 6-mo window
10858 SCOTT MILL Road 2003053	Closed (Sold) C	1,794	$433,500	$242	—	outside the 6-mo window
9743 VICEROY Drive 2072855	Closed (Sold) C	1,710	$282,000	$165	—	outside the 6-mo window
11722 VILLAGE Lane pool 1196856	Closed (Sold) C	2,498	$520,000	$208	—	outside the 6-mo window
11413 BEECHER Circle 2049207	Closed (Sold) C	1,672	$382,000	$228	—	outside the 6-mo window
9557 SHELLIE Road 2071255	Closed (Sold) C	1,782	$235,000	$132	—	outside the 6-mo window
3890 MEDITERRANEAN Court 2072351	Closed (Sold) C	2,916	$625,000	$214	—	outside the 6-mo window
12550 MANDARIN Road pool 2066608	Closed (Sold) C	4,547	$1,900,000	$418	—	outside the 6-mo window
1631 LEMONWOOD Road 2037899	Closed (Sold) C	1,941	$369,500	$190	—	outside the 6-mo window
12563 BRADY PLACE Court 2034439	Closed (Sold) C	2,277	$510,000	$224	—	outside the 6-mo window
12804 GATOR SWAMP Lane 2018235	Closed (Sold) C	—	$350,000	—	—	outside the 6-mo window
12203 GOVERNORS Drive 1258484	Closed (Sold) C	1,581	$320,000	$202	—	outside the 6-mo window
11908 MANDARIN Road 1257722	Closed (Sold) C	3,166	$580,000	$183	—	outside the 6-mo window
12530 MANDARIN Road 1250449	Closed (Sold) C	4,246	$900,000	$212	—	outside the 6-mo window
2926 SCOTT MILL Lane 1230568	Closed (Sold) C	9,478	$2,025,000	$214	—	outside the 6-mo window

Keep

Address

Status

sqft

Price

$/sq ft

vs fair line

11040 BLESSINGS Court
2115038

Closed (Sold)
C

1,622

$409,000

$252

+44%
+$124,945

sets the line

12767 BRADY Road
2153011

Closed (Sold)
C

3,403

$700,000

$206

-36%
−$395,174

sets the line

6429 DANA Drive
2154591

Closed (Sold)
C

1,759

$422,000

$240

+22%
+$75,551

sets the line

12657 ALADDIN Road pool
2118203

Closed (Sold)
C

2,360

$750,000

$318

+21%
+$129,838

sets the line

3955 CEDAR COVE Lane
2148649

Closed (Sold)
C

1,680

$374,900

$223

+21%
+$64,430

sets the line

11005 BLESSINGS Court
2115047

Closed (Sold)
C

2,510

$549,000

$219

-20%
−$139,476

sets the line

10853 PINE ACRES Road
2157361

Closed (Sold)
C

1,835

$425,000

$232

+12%
+$43,938

sets the line

1326 JOURNEYS END Lane
2146782

Closed (Sold)
C

2,571

$665,000

$259

-7%
−$51,257

sets the line

11034 BLESSINGS Court
2136525

Closed (Sold)
C

1,941

$459,000

$236

+7%
+$29,663

sets the line

11028 BLESSINGS Court
2115044

Closed (Sold)
C

1,941

$459,000

$236

+7%
+$29,663

sets the line

2151 JUDITH Place
2114011

Closed (Sold)
C

2,800

$775,000

$277

-6%
−$45,550

sets the line

2501 SCOTT MILL Drive pool
2127459

Closed (Sold)
C

7,556

$3,120,000

$413

+4%
+$133,429

sets the line

13062 MANDARIN Road pool
2152643

For Sale (Active)
A

2,931

$1,800,000

$614

+104%
+$919,788

plotted only

4242 HILLWOOD Road
2154055

For Sale (Active)
A

2,281

$998,900

$438

+71%
+$414,717

plotted only

3443 REMLER Drive pool
2158229

For Sale (Active)
A

1,540

$410,000

$266

+66%
+$163,290

plotted only

11041 BLESSINGS Court
2161824

For Sale (Active)
A

2,510

$449,900

$179

-35%
−$238,576

plotted only

3286 MARBON Road pool
2143941

For Sale (Active)
A

2,554

$505,000

$198

-29%
−$203,515

plotted only

11029 BLESSINGS Court
2143846

For Sale (Active)
A

2,510

$499,900

$199

-27%
−$188,576

plotted only

11023 BLESSINGS Court
2143847

For Sale (Active)
A

2,510

$519,900

$207

-24%
−$168,576

plotted only

13380 EYNON Drive
2135253

For Sale (Active)
A

2,436

$495,000

$203

-24%
−$159,774

plotted only

10380 HOOD Road pool
2131048

For Sale (Active)
A

2,925

$699,000

$239

-20%
−$178,479

plotted only

4654 JULINGTON CREEK Road pool
2135462

For Sale (Active)
A

3,295

$1,200,000

$364

+15%
+$154,012

plotted only

2718 CLAIRE Lane pool
2159326

Under Contract
A

3,388

$950,000

$280

-13%
−$138,343

plotted only

3120 JULINGTON CREEK Road
2153738

For Sale (Active)
A

10,654

$3,900,000

$366

-11%
−$497,490

plotted only

5052 LOURCEY Road pool
2153498

For Sale (Active)
A

4,537

$1,449,000

$319

-10%
−$162,631

plotted only

12641 MANDARIN Road
2154086

Under Contract
A

3,425

$1,150,000

$336

+4%
+$44,806

plotted only

4232 HILLWOOD Road
2131144

For Sale (Active)
A

—

$1,467,750

—

no size/price — not plotted

3120 JULINGTON CREEK Road
2153110

For Sale (Active)
A

—

$3,900,000

—

no size/price — not plotted

5580 GREENLAND Road
2085275

Closed (Sold)
C

1,760

$400,000

$227

—

outside the 6-mo window

9542 RAGSDALE Drive
2091065

Closed (Sold)
C

—

$35,000

—

outside the 6-mo window

11646 MOSSY Way
2078710

Closed (Sold)
C

1,820

$377,000

$207

—

outside the 6-mo window

3392 MARBON Road pool
2055442

Closed (Sold)
C

3,070

$1,000,000

$326

—

outside the 6-mo window

3104 ORANGE PICKER Road
2030785

Closed (Sold)
C

2,108

$458,000

$217

—

outside the 6-mo window

11136 RIVER CREEK Drive pool
2088225

Closed (Sold)
C

2,645

$625,000

$236

—

outside the 6-mo window

1315 FRUIT COVE Road
2117130

Closed (Sold)
C

1,956

$415,000

$212

—

outside the 6-mo window

10813 CHEATHAM Trail
2107338

Closed (Sold)
C

2,633

$435,000

$165

—

outside the 6-mo window

2718 CLAIRE Lane pool
2110588

Closed (Sold)
C

3,388

$899,000

$265

—

outside the 6-mo window

2926 SCOTT MILL Lane pool
2116267

Closed (Sold)
C

9,954

$2,525,000

$254

—

outside the 6-mo window

12221 GOVERNORS Drive
2107453

Closed (Sold)
C

1,497

$350,000

$234

—

outside the 6-mo window

11728 ST JOSEPHS Road
2105845

Closed (Sold)
C

2,136

$478,000

$224

—

outside the 6-mo window

12245 TRACY ANN Road
2095314

Closed (Sold)
C

3,449

$950,000

$275

—

outside the 6-mo window

5039 TAN Street
2098072

Closed (Sold)
C

1,440

$200,000

$139

—

outside the 6-mo window

2562 LORETTO Road
2092852

Closed (Sold)
C

3,838

$1,050,000

$274

—

outside the 6-mo window

12779 OLD FIELD LANDING Drive
2005672

Closed (Sold)
C

1,308

$210,000

$161

—

outside the 6-mo window

11660 MANDARIN TERRACE Road
2093902

Closed (Sold)
C

—

$299,000

—

outside the 6-mo window

10858 SCOTT MILL Road
2003053

Closed (Sold)
C

1,794

$433,500

$242

—

outside the 6-mo window

9743 VICEROY Drive
2072855

Closed (Sold)
C

1,710

$282,000

$165

—

outside the 6-mo window

11722 VILLAGE Lane pool
1196856

Closed (Sold)
C

2,498

$520,000

$208

—

outside the 6-mo window

11413 BEECHER Circle
2049207

Closed (Sold)
C

1,672

$382,000

$228

—

outside the 6-mo window

9557 SHELLIE Road
2071255

Closed (Sold)
C

1,782

$235,000

$132

—

outside the 6-mo window

3890 MEDITERRANEAN Court
2072351

Closed (Sold)
C

2,916

$625,000

$214

—

outside the 6-mo window

12550 MANDARIN Road pool
2066608

Closed (Sold)
C

4,547

$1,900,000

$418

—

outside the 6-mo window

1631 LEMONWOOD Road
2037899

Closed (Sold)
C

1,941

$369,500

$190

—

outside the 6-mo window

12563 BRADY PLACE Court
2034439

Closed (Sold)
C

2,277

$510,000

$224

—

outside the 6-mo window

12804 GATOR SWAMP Lane
2018235

Closed (Sold)
C

—

$350,000

—

outside the 6-mo window

12203 GOVERNORS Drive
1258484

Closed (Sold)
C

1,581

$320,000

$202

—

outside the 6-mo window

11908 MANDARIN Road
1257722

Closed (Sold)
C

3,166

$580,000

$183

—

outside the 6-mo window

12530 MANDARIN Road
1250449

Closed (Sold)
C

4,246

$900,000

$212

—

outside the 6-mo window

2926 SCOTT MILL Lane
1230568

Closed (Sold)
C

9,478

$2,025,000

$214

—

outside the 6-mo window