Pricing Analysis

FlexMLS comp analysis — scattergram, odds of selling, time to close. | One-off run · Lead queue

Choose comps — 86309 BULL CT, YULEE, FL 32097
Untick a comp to throw it out, then re-run. Sorted by distance from the Fair Market line, so the outliers sit at the top.

An excluded comp is dropped from every chart and from the regression — not just hidden on the scattergram. A band you saved is kept. Nothing is destroyed: untick, look, re-tick.

37 comps in the export · 14 plotted in the 6-month window · 6 set the Fair Market line · 0 excluded.

Fair Market line right now — built on 6 closed comps · R² 0.90 · 1σ band $17,879

Only the comps marked sets the line move this. Unticking a wild ACTIVE or PENDING listing tidies the scattergram but will not move the ARV by a dollar — the regression is fit on closed sales only. Watch these three numbers after each re-run: a jumping R² means you are cutting real market, not an outlier.

Address	Status	sqft	Price	$/sq ft	vs fair line
86178 MAINLINE 2136186	Closed (Sold) C	1,670	$347,900	$208	+10% +$32,798	sets the line
86848 MAINLINE 2143219	Closed (Sold) C	1,168	$239,000	$205	-8% −$19,890	sets the line
86296 EXPRESS 2124426	Closed (Sold) C	2,511	$400,000	$159	-2% −$9,275	sets the line
86607 NASSAU CROSSING 2149720	Closed (Sold) C	1,856	$330,000	$178	-2% −$5,930	sets the line
86226 MAINLINE 2134054	Closed (Sold) C	1,219	$267,000	$219	+1% +$2,399	sets the line
86857 IRON RAIL 2129285	Closed (Sold) C	1,670	$315,000	$189	-0% −$102	sets the line
86221 EXPRESS pool 2159581	Under Contract A	1,705	$375,000	$220	+18% +$55,979	plotted only
86349 BULL 2146979	Did Not Sell W	1,402	$335,000	$239	+18% +$49,907	plotted only
86226 MAINLINE 2158866	Did Not Sell L	1,219	$298,000	$244	+13% +$33,399	plotted only
86719 NASSAU CROSSING 2157321	For Sale (Active) A	2,198	$415,000	$189	+11% +$40,774	plotted only
86285 EXPRESS 2140799	For Sale (Active) A	1,747	$349,000	$200	+8% +$25,276	plotted only
86451 NASSAU CROSSING 2145653	Under Contract A	1,856	$355,000	$191	+6% +$19,070	plotted only
86560 NASSAU CROSSING 2156975	For Sale (Active) A	2,511	$419,900	$167	+3% +$10,625	plotted only
86237 MAINLINE 2159523	Under Contract A	2,198	$365,000	$166	-2% −$9,226	plotted only
86625 NASSAU CROSSING 2081298	Did Not Sell L	1,700	$345,000	$203	—	outside the 6-mo window
86815 IRON RAIL 2090098	Closed (Sold) C	1,655	$358,000	$216	—	outside the 6-mo window
86256 EXPRESS 2112841	Closed (Sold) C	1,700	$330,000	$194	—	outside the 6-mo window
86204 BUGGY 2111570	Closed (Sold) C	1,940	$340,000	$175	—	outside the 6-mo window
86857 IRON RAIL 2103934	Did Not Sell E	1,670	$320,000	$192	—	outside the 6-mo window
86594 NASSAU CROSSING 2042676	Closed (Sold) C	1,856	$335,000	$180	—	outside the 6-mo window
86189 MAINLINE 2054704	Closed (Sold) C	2,198	$399,000	$182	—	outside the 6-mo window
86625 NASSAU CROSSING 2032885	Did Not Sell E	1,700	$350,000	$206	—	outside the 6-mo window
86604 NASSAU CROSSING 2068792	Did Not Sell E	2,511	$399,000	$159	—	outside the 6-mo window
86146 RAILWAY 2058155	Closed (Sold) C	1,856	$350,000	$189	—	outside the 6-mo window
86682 NASSAU CROSSING 2046691	Closed (Sold) C	2,511	$408,000	$162	—	outside the 6-mo window
86228 BUGGY 2080657	Closed (Sold) C	1,940	$329,000	$170	—	outside the 6-mo window
86205 MAINLINE 2051824	Closed (Sold) C	2,198	$375,000	$171	—	outside the 6-mo window
86709 NASSAU CROSSING 2055089	Closed (Sold) C	1,700	$345,000	$203	—	outside the 6-mo window
86293 MAINLINE 2078882	Closed (Sold) C	1,219	$307,500	$252	—	outside the 6-mo window
86604 NASSAU XING 2076918	Closed (Sold) C	2,511	$405,000	$161	—	outside the 6-mo window
86277 MAINLINE 2078190	Closed (Sold) C	2,198	$382,500	$174	—	outside the 6-mo window
86204 BUGGY 2100359	Did Not Sell L	1,940	$339,000	$175	—	outside the 6-mo window
86552 NASSAU CROSSING 2041498	Did Not Sell E	2,198	$415,000	$189	—	outside the 6-mo window
86709 NASSAU CROSSING 2042773	Did Not Sell E	1,700	$347,900	$205	—	outside the 6-mo window
86451 NASSAU CROSSING 2030060	Did Not Sell E	1,856	$375,000	$202	—	outside the 6-mo window
86699 NASSAU CROSSING 2047579	Closed (Sold) C	1,690	$345,000	$204	—	outside the 6-mo window
85441 Sandy Ridge SA255058	Closed (Sold) C	2,523	$532,400	$211	—	outside the 6-mo window

Keep

Address

Status

sqft

Price

$/sq ft

vs fair line

86178 MAINLINE
2136186

Closed (Sold)
C

1,670

$347,900

$208

+10%
+$32,798

sets the line

86848 MAINLINE
2143219

Closed (Sold)
C

1,168

$239,000

$205

-8%
−$19,890

sets the line

86296 EXPRESS
2124426

Closed (Sold)
C

2,511

$400,000

$159

-2%
−$9,275

sets the line

86607 NASSAU CROSSING
2149720

Closed (Sold)
C

1,856

$330,000

$178

-2%
−$5,930

sets the line

86226 MAINLINE
2134054

Closed (Sold)
C

1,219

$267,000

$219

+1%
+$2,399

sets the line

86857 IRON RAIL
2129285

Closed (Sold)
C

1,670

$315,000

$189

-0%
−$102

sets the line

86221 EXPRESS pool
2159581

Under Contract
A

1,705

$375,000

$220

+18%
+$55,979

plotted only

86349 BULL
2146979

Did Not Sell
W

1,402

$335,000

$239

+18%
+$49,907

plotted only

86226 MAINLINE
2158866

Did Not Sell
L

1,219

$298,000

$244

+13%
+$33,399

plotted only

86719 NASSAU CROSSING
2157321

For Sale (Active)
A

2,198

$415,000

$189

+11%
+$40,774

plotted only

86285 EXPRESS
2140799

For Sale (Active)
A

1,747

$349,000

$200

+8%
+$25,276

plotted only

86451 NASSAU CROSSING
2145653

Under Contract
A

1,856

$355,000

$191

+6%
+$19,070

plotted only

86560 NASSAU CROSSING
2156975

For Sale (Active)
A

2,511

$419,900

$167

+3%
+$10,625

plotted only

86237 MAINLINE
2159523

Under Contract
A

2,198

$365,000

$166

-2%
−$9,226

plotted only

86625 NASSAU CROSSING
2081298

Did Not Sell
L

1,700

$345,000

$203

—

outside the 6-mo window

86815 IRON RAIL
2090098

Closed (Sold)
C

1,655

$358,000

$216

—

outside the 6-mo window

86256 EXPRESS
2112841

Closed (Sold)
C

1,700

$330,000

$194

—

outside the 6-mo window

86204 BUGGY
2111570

Closed (Sold)
C

1,940

$340,000

$175

—

outside the 6-mo window

86857 IRON RAIL
2103934

Did Not Sell
E

1,670

$320,000

$192

—

outside the 6-mo window

86594 NASSAU CROSSING
2042676

Closed (Sold)
C

1,856

$335,000

$180

—

outside the 6-mo window

86189 MAINLINE
2054704

Closed (Sold)
C

2,198

$399,000

$182

—

outside the 6-mo window

86625 NASSAU CROSSING
2032885

Did Not Sell
E

1,700

$350,000

$206

—

outside the 6-mo window

86604 NASSAU CROSSING
2068792

Did Not Sell
E

2,511

$399,000

$159

—

outside the 6-mo window

86146 RAILWAY
2058155

Closed (Sold)
C

1,856

$350,000

$189

—

outside the 6-mo window

86682 NASSAU CROSSING
2046691

Closed (Sold)
C

2,511

$408,000

$162

—

outside the 6-mo window

86228 BUGGY
2080657

Closed (Sold)
C

1,940

$329,000

$170

—

outside the 6-mo window

86205 MAINLINE
2051824

Closed (Sold)
C

2,198

$375,000

$171

—

outside the 6-mo window

86709 NASSAU CROSSING
2055089

Closed (Sold)
C

1,700

$345,000

$203

—

outside the 6-mo window

86293 MAINLINE
2078882

Closed (Sold)
C

1,219

$307,500

$252

—

outside the 6-mo window

86604 NASSAU XING
2076918

Closed (Sold)
C

2,511

$405,000

$161

—

outside the 6-mo window

86277 MAINLINE
2078190

Closed (Sold)
C

2,198

$382,500

$174

—

outside the 6-mo window

86204 BUGGY
2100359

Did Not Sell
L

1,940

$339,000

$175

—

outside the 6-mo window

86552 NASSAU CROSSING
2041498

Did Not Sell
E

2,198

$415,000

$189

—

outside the 6-mo window

86709 NASSAU CROSSING
2042773

Did Not Sell
E

1,700

$347,900

$205

—

outside the 6-mo window

86451 NASSAU CROSSING
2030060

Did Not Sell
E

1,856

$375,000

$202

—

outside the 6-mo window

86699 NASSAU CROSSING
2047579

Closed (Sold)
C

1,690

$345,000

$204

—

outside the 6-mo window

85441 Sandy Ridge
SA255058

Closed (Sold)
C

2,523

$532,400

$211

—

outside the 6-mo window